Trades

Investment Vehicles, Recommendations, Position Sizing

Physical Silver ETFs[30][31]

TickerNameHoldingsAUMExpense RatioStructure
SLViShares Silver Trust505 Moz$40B0.50%Physical; London vaults; no redemption for bars
PSLVSprott Physical Silver Trust185 Moz$13.9B0.57%Physical; Royal Canadian Mint; redeemable
SIVRabrdn Physical Silver50 Moz$2.0B0.30%Physical; ICBC Standard Bank UK; serial numbers published

Futures Contracts[33][35][36]

ContractExchangeSizeTick ValueMarginNotes
SI (Silver)COMEX/CME5,000 oz$0.005 ($25/tick)$18,000-22,000Standard; most liquid
SIL (Micro Silver)COMEX/CME1,000 oz$0.005 ($5/tick)$4,4001/5th standard; better for sizing

Roll Yield Considerations

Silver futures typically trade in contango (forward price above spot), meaning long positions incur roll yield drag of approximately 1-3% per year.[36] For fund-scale allocations, this makes physical ETFs (SLV, PSLV, SIVR) more cost-effective for medium-to-long-term holdings, while futures are better suited for tactical, short-duration trades where margin efficiency matters.

Streaming Companies[32]

TickerCompanySilver % of RevenueNotes
WPMWheaton Precious Metals40%100% streamer. No debt, $1.2B cash. Revenue +55% YoY, net earnings +137.5%.
RGLDRoyal Gold18%Primarily gold royalty/streaming. Lean operating structure.
FNVFranco-Nevada10%Diversified royalty/streaming. Least silver-leveraged.

Timing Guidance

Current Market Context

At $75.54/oz, silver is above its 200-day moving average and in a structural uptrend since late 2024. The January 2026 spike to $121 and subsequent 37% correction has established $65-70 as near-term support. Current levels offer moderate risk/reward. Better entries likely on pullbacks to $65-68 (breakout retest level).

Trade Recommendations

WPM Streaming
HIGH CONVICTION
Best risk-adjusted silver exposure. No operational risk. Cash-rich. 40% silver revenue.
AG Pure-Play Miner
HIGH CONVICTION
Highest silver leverage. If silver runs, AG runs 2-3x. Costs declining.
CDE Growth Miner
MEDIUM CONVICTION
+62% production growth guided. Reserves growing. Operational turnaround.
PAAS Diversified Miner
MEDIUM CONVICTION
468 Moz reserves. Diversified. Lower vol. Juanicipio upside.
SIVR Physical ETF
MEDIUM CONVICTION
Lowest cost (0.30%). 20 bps savings vs SLV compounds at fund scale.
SI / SIL Futures (COMEX)
HEDGE / TACTICAL
Most capital-efficient. Micro contracts for precise sizing. Roll yield drag ~1-3%/yr.

If Silver, Then Which Vehicle?

Decision Tree by Allocation Size

  • Fund allocating $1M+: SIVR (core) + AG/CDE (satellite leverage) + SI futures (tactical)
  • Retail $50K: SIVR or physical coins/bars
  • Already own gold: Add silver miners (AG, CDE) for beta amplification

Position Sizing

Sizing Framework

Silver's 32% annual volatility and history of 35-90% drawdowns dictate conservative sizing. Guidelines for a diversified portfolio:

  • Total silver exposure: 3-8% of portfolio, depending on conviction and risk tolerance.
  • Single-name miners (AG, CDE, PAAS): 1-2% each maximum. Miners amplify silver moves 2-3x.
  • Streamers (WPM): Up to 3% as a lower-vol proxy with operating leverage to silver.
  • Physical ETF (SIVR/SLV): Core position for direct price exposure without operational risk.
  • Futures (SI/SIL): Tactical overlay only. Size for the possibility of a 40% adverse move within days (as seen in the January 2026 crash).
Henry Obegi | Silver Deep-Dive | April 2026 | Prepared for Farouk Abillama