Supply

Mine Production, Recycling, Cost Curve, Major Producers

Mine Production by Country (metric tonnes)[1][2]

1 metric tonne = 32,151 troy ounces

Country2023 (t)2024 (t)Notes
Mexico6,4006,300World #1. Penasquito returned to full production in 2024.
China3,4003,300Mostly byproduct of lead/zinc mining.
Peru3,2003,100Declining slightly. Political instability risk.
Poland1,3001,300KGHM byproduct of copper. 7% drop Q2 2025 from smelter maintenance.
Chile1,3001,000Significant decline (-23% YoY).
Bolivia1,2001,300Grew in 2024.
Russia1,2001,200Estimated stable. Sanctions impact uncertain.
Australia1,1001,200Increased output from lead/zinc mines.
Argentina900900Estimated stable.
United States1,0001,100+6% YoY. Alaska #1 state, then Idaho. 4 silver mines + 31 byproduct.

Recycling[1]

193.9 Moz
Total Recycling (2024)
17%
Share of Total Supply
+6%
YoY Growth

Recycling Breakdown

Industrial scrap: 100 Moz. E-waste: 45 Moz. Jewelry scrap: 38 Moz. Expected to become significant after 2030 as first-gen solar installations reach end-of-life.

The Byproduct Problem[2]

Why Silver Supply Cannot Respond to Price

Approximately 70% of all silver is produced as a byproduct of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining. This means silver supply is driven primarily by base metal economics, not silver price. Even at $76/oz, there is no incentive for copper miners to increase production just because silver is expensive. Only ~30% of silver comes from primary silver mines (Fresnillo, Pan American, First Majestic). This structural constraint makes supply response inherently slow and inelastic.

Cost Curve vs Current Price

Price Level% of Mines Profitable
$25/oz45%
$30/oz72%
$35/oz87%
$40/oz95%
$50/oz98%
$77/oz100%

Implication

At the current price of $75.54/oz, 100% of silver mines are profitable. However, since most silver production is a byproduct, mine profitability is determined by the primary metal (copper, gold, zinc), not silver. The cost curve matters most for the ~30% of supply from primary silver miners.

Major Producers[26][27][28][29]

CompanyTickerProduction (Moz)AISC ($/oz)ReservesNotes
FresnilloFRES.L56.3$25.40LargeWorld's largest primary silver producer. Revenue $3.5B (+29%).
Pan American SilverPAAS20.0$18.98468 MozLargest diversified silver miner. Juanicipio acquisition.
Hecla MiningHL15.0$28.28240 MozLargest US/Canadian producer. 134-year history.
First MajesticAG15.0$28.85ModeratePure-play silver brand. Costs declining rapidly.
Coeur MiningCDE10.0$29.43274 Moz+62% production growth guided for 2025. Revenue $1.1B.
MAG SilverMAG12.0N/A15.4Mt @ 628 g/t AgEqJV with Fresnillo at Juanicipio. High-grade.
KGHMKGH.WA43.0N/ALargePrimary copper producer; silver is byproduct.

Producer Margins at Current Price

At the current price of $75.54/oz, all major producers are operating at extraordinary margins (62-76% above AISC). This incentivizes supply expansion, but ~70% of silver is a byproduct of base metal mining, limiting the price-responsive supply.

So What?

Mine production peaked in 2016 and has never recovered despite prices tripling. WHY? Because ~70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold operations. These mines produce silver as a side effect, not a target. When silver prices rise, copper miners do not dig more copper just because silver is expensive. And building a NEW primary silver mine takes 7-10 years from discovery to production. So even at $76/oz, the supply response is structurally delayed. The only near-term supply valve is recycling (currently 17% of supply), which responds to price but cannot close a ~150 Moz/yr gap. This structural inelasticity is the foundation of the bull case.