1 metric tonne = 32,151 troy ounces
| Country | 2023 (t) | 2024 (t) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 6,400 | 6,300 | World #1. Penasquito returned to full production in 2024. |
| China | 3,400 | 3,300 | Mostly byproduct of lead/zinc mining. |
| Peru | 3,200 | 3,100 | Declining slightly. Political instability risk. |
| Poland | 1,300 | 1,300 | KGHM byproduct of copper. 7% drop Q2 2025 from smelter maintenance. |
| Chile | 1,300 | 1,000 | Significant decline (-23% YoY). |
| Bolivia | 1,200 | 1,300 | Grew in 2024. |
| Russia | 1,200 | 1,200 | Estimated stable. Sanctions impact uncertain. |
| Australia | 1,100 | 1,200 | Increased output from lead/zinc mines. |
| Argentina | 900 | 900 | Estimated stable. |
| United States | 1,000 | 1,100 | +6% YoY. Alaska #1 state, then Idaho. 4 silver mines + 31 byproduct. |
Industrial scrap: 100 Moz. E-waste: 45 Moz. Jewelry scrap: 38 Moz. Expected to become significant after 2030 as first-gen solar installations reach end-of-life.
Approximately 70% of all silver is produced as a byproduct of gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining. This means silver supply is driven primarily by base metal economics, not silver price. Even at $76/oz, there is no incentive for copper miners to increase production just because silver is expensive. Only ~30% of silver comes from primary silver mines (Fresnillo, Pan American, First Majestic). This structural constraint makes supply response inherently slow and inelastic.
| Price Level | % of Mines Profitable |
|---|---|
| $25/oz | 45% |
| $30/oz | 72% |
| $35/oz | 87% |
| $40/oz | 95% |
| $50/oz | 98% |
| $77/oz | 100% |
At the current price of $75.54/oz, 100% of silver mines are profitable. However, since most silver production is a byproduct, mine profitability is determined by the primary metal (copper, gold, zinc), not silver. The cost curve matters most for the ~30% of supply from primary silver miners.
| Company | Ticker | Production (Moz) | AISC ($/oz) | Reserves | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo | FRES.L | 56.3 | $25.40 | Large | World's largest primary silver producer. Revenue $3.5B (+29%). |
| Pan American Silver | PAAS | 20.0 | $18.98 | 468 Moz | Largest diversified silver miner. Juanicipio acquisition. |
| Hecla Mining | HL | 15.0 | $28.28 | 240 Moz | Largest US/Canadian producer. 134-year history. |
| First Majestic | AG | 15.0 | $28.85 | Moderate | Pure-play silver brand. Costs declining rapidly. |
| Coeur Mining | CDE | 10.0 | $29.43 | 274 Moz | +62% production growth guided for 2025. Revenue $1.1B. |
| MAG Silver | MAG | 12.0 | N/A | 15.4Mt @ 628 g/t AgEq | JV with Fresnillo at Juanicipio. High-grade. |
| KGHM | KGH.WA | 43.0 | N/A | Large | Primary copper producer; silver is byproduct. |
At the current price of $75.54/oz, all major producers are operating at extraordinary margins (62-76% above AISC). This incentivizes supply expansion, but ~70% of silver is a byproduct of base metal mining, limiting the price-responsive supply.
Mine production peaked in 2016 and has never recovered despite prices tripling. WHY? Because ~70% of silver is mined as a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold operations. These mines produce silver as a side effect, not a target. When silver prices rise, copper miners do not dig more copper just because silver is expensive. And building a NEW primary silver mine takes 7-10 years from discovery to production. So even at $76/oz, the supply response is structurally delayed. The only near-term supply valve is recycling (currently 17% of supply), which responds to price but cannot close a ~150 Moz/yr gap. This structural inelasticity is the foundation of the bull case.